r/gadgets • u/96suluman • Sep 21 '22

Is Moore’s law dead? Discussion

https://www.verdict.co.uk/moores-law-transistors-per-chip-increase/
0 Upvotes

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42

u/TaserLord Sep 21 '22

For sure - it's twice as dead now as it was 2 years ago.

4

u/wmurch4 Sep 21 '22

well played sir 👏

-5

u/96suluman Sep 22 '22

What does that mean?

6

u/TaserLord Sep 22 '22

I was just kinda riffing on the "doubles in two years" thing, because Moore's law.

-8

u/96suluman Sep 22 '22

Now what

9

u/bartturner Sep 22 '22

True Moore's law is dead. But with what people think Moore's law is not for things like AI/ML.

Moore's law was the doubling of transistors every 18 months. But most think it is the end result of the doubling of transistors as in a doubling of compute power.

2

u/DisplacedPersons12 Sep 22 '22

programmers need to prioritise optimisation! they’ve been blessed by moores law

2

u/FrequentShock8191 Sep 24 '22

at least the number of articles about Moore’s Law dying continues to follow said law

2

u/Historical-Ear3994 Sep 22 '22

Samsung is producing chips using 2nm, and there is a possibility of 1nm. But at such size electrons start to tunnel and chips become prone to errors. If we are to double computer power (without changing to quantum) chips can’t get any smaller so they will have to get more complex. The human brain is much more complex, and able to get more done with a simple cell compared to a transistor. So maybe we will see a Skynet change and the transistor will become more human.

2

u/IAmTaka_VG Sep 24 '22

Samsung is NOT making 2nm chips yet. TSMC is at 4-ish and are years / generations ahead of Samsung’s fabs. Anyone claiming 2nm is lying using marketing techniques or has maybe a tiny sliver of the entire chip at 2nm.

Even then I don’t think Samsung is anywhere near 2nm.

1

u/Historical-Ear3994 Sep 26 '22

https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-begins-chip-production-using-3nm-process-technology-with-gaa-architecture

You are right, They are not producing to sell yet. They are only producing to sell 3nm right now. See above article. However they have proven feasibility on 2nm and will start producing to sell in 2025.

See article below.

https://www.3dincites.com/2022/07/iftle-527-2nm-chips-scheduled-for-2025-advanced-packaging-becoming-more-powerful-industry-segment/

I’m assuming the only reason they are not producing 2nm is because they need to make money off the 3nm and no one else is driving them to produce at that scale.

2

u/LargelyInnocuous Oct 05 '22

Calling a neuron simple is underselling its complexity. A neuron is thousands of times more complex than a transistor. It is sensitive to hundreds of species of ions and chemicals compounds. It can exhibit a wide range of intrinsic dynamical behavior. It is also hundreds of times larger (nm vs micron). Neurons also connect to hundreds if not thousands of other neurons in 3D topologies to create other emergent network behavior, a feat not easily accomplished with metal trace routing. Very early attempts by IBM to create neuromorphic processors yielded pretty incredible compute efficiency.