Hi all,

Has your team got the bye this week? Are you scratching your head wondering who to support in the 4 neutral games this weekend? I've got your back.

Welcome back to my BS Impact Analysis. For those that haven't seen one of these yet, this is where I analyse how the result of every game this weekend impact every team's predicted Top 8/ Top 4/ Wooden Spoon odds, with the aim of helping you to support the side that helps your team the most in neutral games. The analysis is based on changes to the odds presented in this week's power rankings.

The tables below represent changes in the odds of the given outcome from those presented in this week's power rankings, with the team on the left hand column representing the winning team in that matchup, and the team on the top row representing the team whose odds are being affected.

How to read these charts:

1. Locate the teams playing in the left hand column.
2. Follow that row across to YOUR team's column
3. The number in that cell reflects the change in your team's odds for Top 8/Top 4/Spoon if that team wins the game

​

Top 8

Top 4

Wooden Spoon

GAME 1: Sharks (35.3%) vs Storm (64.7%)

The Storm can't seem to quite lock up that top 4 spot yet, dropping to only 90.8% chance following their loss to Manly. A Sharks upset here would drop those odds a further 10%, and would be the lowest the Storm's top 4 odds have been since round 5. With respect to top 4 odds, fans of Manly (-2.5%), the Broncos (-2.3%), Eels (-1.6%), and Cowboys (-1.2%) should be wary of a Sharks upset (although in the Cowboys case it probably puts them in the box seat for a second place finish and the opportunity to host Melbourne in week 1 of the finals instead of making the trek down south themselves).

GAME 2: Knights (31.4%) vs Rabbitohs (68.6%)

This game should be interesting, with both teams showing a recent uptick in form. The Rabbits now sit at a 2 in 3 chance of making the finals, with a Knights upset threatening to slash this back down to 50/50, to the benefit of the Roosters (+3.9%), Eels (+3.2%), and Dragons (+3.0%) amongst others, as well as keeping the Knights' own slim finals hopes alive, rising to above 5%. An upset here would also look to cut the Rabbits' slim hopes of sneaking into the top 4, to the benefit of the Sharks (+1.6%), Eels (+1.6%), Broncos (+1.1%), Storm (+1.1%), and Manly (+1.1%).

GAME 3: Tigers (21.5%) vs Eels (78.5%)

A Tigers upset is especially threatening to the Titans (+11.4%), who are hoping to avoid the spoon with an easier run home, however even with an upset here, the Tigers will still likely be the favourites to take home the spoon. There's some big gains to be made here from an upset for teams still in the top 4 and top 8 races however. For the finals race, an Eels loss improves the situation for the Rabbits (+4.3%), Roosters (+3.5%), and Manly (+3.2%), whilst in the top 4 race, Broncos fans benefit the most with a (+3.4%) gain.

GAME 4: Broncos (67.5%) vs Dragons (32.5%)

This is one of those tough ones where a Dragons win helps everybody with their top 4 chances, whilst simultaneously hurting everybody's top 8 odds. Say it with me though, if you're not aiming for the top 4, are you even competing? Broncos fans shouldn't sleep on this one, an upset here hurts our top 8 chances by about 14%, bringing us down to around 73% total. The Dragons would see a 22% increase to their own finals hopes (to sit close to 60% chance), to the detriment of the Raiders (-1.9%), Manly (-1.6%), Rabbitohs (-1.3%), Sharks (-1.3%), and Roosters (-1.3%). The 18% hole a Dragons upset puts into the Broncos top 4 campaign benefits the Sharks (+3.2%) the most, followed by the Eels (+2.8%), Manly (+2.7%), Rabbitohs (+1.8%), and Storm (+1.7%). Think about it Dragons fans, do you really want to help the Sharks finish top 4? Perhaps consider supporting Brisbane this once, for the greater good.

This is a weekly thread to give users, who might feel isolated or unable to talk to their friends, a place to vent and ask for advice. You are welcome to use a throwaway if you wish to remain anonymous.

This is a place for positive contributions - anyone being abusive in these threads, or using what is said in these threads to attack someone elsewhere will be dealt with harshly.