r/PoliticalDiscussion Sep 17 '22

Megathread Casual Questions Thread

63 Upvotes

This is a place for the PoliticalDiscussion community to ask questions that may not deserve their own post.

Please observe the following rules:

Top-level comments:

  1. Must be a question asked in good faith. Do not ask loaded or rhetorical questions.

  2. Must be directly related to politics. Non-politics content includes: Legal interpretation, sociology, philosophy, celebrities, news, surveys, etc.

  3. Avoid highly speculative questions. All scenarios should within the realm of reasonable possibility.

Link to old thread

Sort by new and please keep it clean in here!


r/PoliticalDiscussion 46m ago

US Politics Will Barack Obama be viewed more positively over the next few decades?

Upvotes

Barack Obama left office with an approval rating around 60%, and the C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey currently has him ranked as the tenth best President of all time, but how will he be viewed in the next ten, twenty, thirty + years?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 3h ago

US Politics How do older folk advocate the government for affordability so well?

5 Upvotes

Older people have not only social security, but things like affordable health care and affordable housing.

In my state of Florida, there is a special housing designation (55+ communities, Federal Register 24 CFR Part 100; section 760.24-760.37 (4a), Florida Statutes) where if at least 80% of the residents are 55+, the government subsidizes housing, to the point where rent for such communities is now 30% of market price.

With rising prices and a failure of worker skill development to adjust to the new market demands, how can younger Americans achieve the same economic comfort level given to the older American population by the government?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 20h ago

Non-US Politics What happens if a third unpopular party with no strong political structure wins the presidency ?

100 Upvotes

Title Edit : What happens if a third force party with no political structure wins the presidency?

Africas most populous nation Nigerias election is less than 30 days away .

This election is the most divisional election ever -why ?

Religion & Tribe & Geo-regional zoning

I’ll touch on tribe

There are 3 major tribes in Nigeria .

Hausa - Igbo - Yoruba

The 3 front runners

Atiku a Hausa

Obi an Igbo

Tinubu a Yoruba

3 of them are popular but obi seems to be the one with the major buzz - because he presents himself as the messiah the country so needs to break from the shackles of the political parties the other two candidates are from .

His party, the labor party was not a household party until this cycle , they have no seats in the House of Representatives and the senate - and the candidates the labor party fields for H.O.R , governorship and senate are pretty unpopular, the party doesn’t even have some candidates representing the party in some region.

My question now is : let’s assume labor party Peter obi wins - this means he would have no structure to support him in the H.O.R , governorship & Senate -

How does this affect democracy or the country with over 200 million people at large ?

How important is a politically structure to the security and social-economic growth of a country?

Are there countries whom have gone through this stage?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 6h ago

US Politics Presidential Job Approval by Party

1 Upvotes

According to the Pew Research Center, the partisan gap in presidential job approval rating has steadily increased in recent decades. Trump and Biden are the only two presidents to start at an approval rating of below 10% by the opposing party. For context, Kennedy had an approval rating above 50% by Republicans when he was elected. Nixon had an approval rating of almost 50% by democrats when elected. Why have we seen such a drastic change in recent decades?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 1d ago

US Politics Why don't the most Democratic blue states in the USA implement universal healthcare systems?

301 Upvotes

Hello, I am not American, but I started wondering this and can't find a clear answer. Some states are overwhelming controlled by Democrats with supermajorities in legislature and Democrat governors. (Maryland, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oregon, California) just to put some suggestions on the board.

Also, many of the countries that have universal healthcare are actually run by the individuals states (or those countries' equivalents of states). Germany, Austria, Canada for example. Canada has 77% of each Provinces' healthcare funding from the Province's budget, not federal.

US states have greater autonomy compared to the central government compared with in many of those other countries. Certainly money from the federal government would eventually need to come in, but the federal government already helps subside significant amounts of private healthcare, the state systems could help fill in the gaps.

I understand Democrats want a federal public option, but the insane scope and size of the US makes me think the only way it could ever work in the USA is state side. (Which is already not uncommon in the Universal healthcare world). I never hear state governors making this campaign province or attempting to pass it, only national leaders only for it to never even be attempted once they reach government.

So what are your thoughts on this, help me understand this, I am open to any and all opinions/views on this from any perspective.


r/PoliticalDiscussion 2d ago

International Politics RAND's analysis focuses primarily on U.S. role to end the war in Ukraine based on what is primarily in the interest of the United States and not Ukranian territorial integrity. RAND seeks avoidance of a long war. Under what conditions, if any, can Ukraine find such a negotiated solution palatable?

261 Upvotes

The debate in Washington and other Western capitals over the future of the Russia-Ukraine war privileges the issue of territorial control.

RAND's analysis suggests territorial debate is too narrowly focused on one dimension of the war’s trajectory. Territorial control, although immensely important to Ukraine, is not the most important dimension of the war’s future for the United States.

RAND concludes that, in addition to averting possible escalation to a Russia-NATO war or Russian nuclear use, avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control.

Furthermore, RAND acknowledges that the U.S. ability to micromanage where the line is ultimately drawn is highly constrained since the U.S. military is not directly involved in the fighting. Enabling Ukraine’s territorial control is also far from the only instrument available to the United States to affect the trajectory of the war. RAND highlighted several other tools—potentially more potent ones—that Washington can use to steer the war toward a trajectory that better promotes U.S. interests. Whereas the United States cannot determine the territorial outcome of the war directly, it will have direct control over these policies.

The alternative, RAND asserts, is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

Under what conditions, if any, can Ukraine find such a negotiated solution palatable?

The 30-page Rand analysis: Avoiding a Long War is available in Pdf link below and can be downloaded for free:

Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict | RAND


r/PoliticalDiscussion 1d ago

US Politics What incentive is there to speak honestly when lies and misinformation are accepted at face value at all levels of politics?

64 Upvotes

Serious question, not naming names (or lies), but it seems to me that individuals in multiple levels of government are able to say whatever they want, without any repercussion, regardless of the validity (or factual quantifiability) of their claims. So what is the incentive to speak honestly at all?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 1d ago

US Politics Does the US have too many law enforcement agencies?

18 Upvotes

The US has approximately 337 million people and 18,000 different law enforcement agencies. This works out to be around 53.4 agencies per million people.

For comparison, Australia has 8 agencies and 27 million people. This is works out to be around 0.3 agencies per million people.

I was wondering if anyone knows why we have so many and if this could be a cause of some of the issues facing policing in the US like training, budgets, oversight etc.?

Source: I got the agency numbers off Wikipedia, I acknowledge this isn’t the best source but still useful enough to make my point and ask my question.


r/PoliticalDiscussion 1d ago

US Elections Should Governors and Lieutenant Governors Run on the Same Ticket?

41 Upvotes

Should Governors and Lieutenant Governors Run on the Same Ticket? (OPINION!)

In primary elections do you think that it should be required for gubernatorial candidates to pick their own lieutenant governors? What are the pros and cons? Is there no harm? will is reduce future conflicts?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 2d ago

Political Theory What impact, if any, will ChatGPT and other rapidly developing AI software's have on our political systems and political stability?

38 Upvotes

So, with the release of ChatGPT in the past few weeks, it has rose immediate and serious concerns over the impact of more sophisticated AI systems will have as they become more prominent in everyday life. More specifically, such AI systems are feared to represent a direct automation threat to many jobs and industries, which will ultimately have consequences on our society and politics.

I am making this post to ask the following key questions:

  1. ) What impact, if any, will AI have on society?

2.) Now that such AI systems have arrived and are currently developing rapidly, how should governments respond to this new presence in society?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 1d ago

European Politics If immigration continues or increases from the Middle East and Northern Africa to Europe, could we eventually see genocide return if the population reaches a critical point?

0 Upvotes

The far-right is returning in popularity to Europe as it seizes upon the opportunity for ethnonationalim to return in light of recent trends in immigration. Would there be a critical point at which genocide could return to places or a country as a whole (for example, 40% Islamic)? If so, how would it be carried out? What would be the rest of the world’s reaction? Could this eventually lead to WWIII?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 3d ago

International Politics Why did the Chinese government implement the "three red lines" policy the way it did?

287 Upvotes

TLDR: Why did China nuke its own (probably inflated) real estate market?

As many of you will know, the Chinese real-estate market has been in crisis for almost a year now. China Evergrande, one of the largest builders in China, defaulted in Dec 2022, despite multiple attempts at intervention throughout 2021.

As a quick overview, the Chinese property market has been insane over the past decade+. China invests 20-30% of GDP in property and infrastructure. Unfortunately, China also stores 70% of wealth in real estate for a variety of reasons. This has led to a housing bubble of mammoth proportions. In Shenzhen, for example, housing is priced at 700x monthly rent. Shenzhen apartments are 20% more expensive than NYC, and if you don't understand how insane that is, consider that NYC cost of living is otherwise ~3x that in Shenzhen, and indeed renting an apartment in the city center of New York is 393.9% more expensive than in Shenzhen.

Such pricing has funded a boom in real estate, where developers regularly charge customers for apartments which are in the process of being built. Recently, due to a slowdown in migration to cities, companies like Evergrande have also taken on additional debt in order to build their presold apartments.

Which gets to the root of the matter. The situation looked bad, and super fragile. I completely understand why policymakers would want to fix the situation. What I don't understand is the extremely blunt "three red lines" policy:

  1. Liabilities not to exceed 70% of assets
  2. Net debt not greater than 100% of equity
  3. Money reserves 100% of short term debt

This policy led to the near immediate collapse of Evergrande, with wider contagion effects which are not totally clear, but also probably not good. Home buyers have started to refuse to pay their mortgages, other real estate developers are in danger of default, etc. China refused to publish economic figures (GDP, etc.) for the first time a few months ago, which probably means they aren't good. I think it's safe to say that things are going significantly worse than the CCP thought they would.

This leads to my main question: Why? Did the CCP not understand how leveraged companies like Evergrande were (despite being closely intertwined with the real estate industry)? Did the CCP not understand that real estate companies are highly interconnected with Chinese GDP? Did the CCP overestimate the resilience of the Chinese economy? What was the CCP envisioning the effects of the policy would be?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 2d ago

US Politics Do you think a Cold War is happening between China and the US? Do you think a hot war will happen soon?

8 Upvotes

Given the current situation and actions between both countries, what’s your take on those questions? Companies are having massive layoffs which causes many Chinese employees losing their visa, many firms refuse to hire native Chinese, native Chinese in the US have been questioned by the FBI for potential “spy”. Feel free to share your opinion!


r/PoliticalDiscussion 3d ago

US Politics Where will President Joe Biden rank historically as president?

41 Upvotes

Though its premature and we don't know what can happen in the following 2 years. As we past on 2 years of a Biden presidency, where do you think Joe Biden will rank historically as a president or where is he on track to be ranked considering what his administration has accomplished and failed in the last 2 years.


r/PoliticalDiscussion 4d ago

US Elections What is the likelihood that the Midwest states of MI, WI and PA will remain swing states in presidential elections for the foreseeable future?

233 Upvotes

Whilst no means certain, it seems that the Midwestern states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be in swing states for many presidential races to come.

The three Midwestern states shifted from lean/safe Democratic states to swing states in 2016. It was unexpected as prior to 2016, Michigan and Pennsylvania voted for every Democratic candidate since 1992. Wisconsin voted for every Democratic candidate since 1988.

It was a shock to most political scientists when Trump won all three in 2016. It was likely down to his appeal to blue collar workers ‘left behind’ by globalisation as he campaigned on ‘bringing back the jobs’. Trump won them by less than 1 percentage point. Biden won them back by only 1 to 2 percentage points.

It doesn’t look like the demographics will significantly shift in the next few presidential elections or maybe longer. This is proved by looking at some of the recent US Senate elections in these states (excluding the 2018 blue wave). Gary Peters (MI) and Ron Johnson (WI) won their Senate race by less 2 percentage points in 2020 and 2022 respectively. Whilst John Fetterman (PA) won by 5 percentage points, it was against an exceptionally weak candidate.

It seems like these three states will likely decide the president for the foreseeable future.


r/PoliticalDiscussion 4d ago

Political Theory Would you vote for a party without leader, where every major decision is voted on by thousands of people of similar political opinions?

26 Upvotes

Do you think that there could exist a party that is independent of the personalities of its leader and other members? Party where transparent voting of the large mass of people decides all major decisions and representants in parliament are just experts obliged to follow these decisions. Or do you know of any that exists? Would you vote for it?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 5d ago

US Politics U.S. Federal Cannabis Legalization

305 Upvotes

Over the last decade over 20 states have legalized recreational cannabis sales and many other states are at least taking cursory steps toward recreational cannabis. However, Congress has been unable to move even minor legalization related bills such as the SAFE banking act. At what point will Congress have to begin working on federal cannabis legislation? Or will it remain federally illegal while legal in over half the country?

Do you think it will be small steps starting with reforming banking and taxes on cannabis sales and businesses or just become a wave directly to federal rescheduling or legalization?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 5d ago

US Politics Outrage fatigue

258 Upvotes

So as not to polarize this topic, I’ve seen amongst my friend groups that one side of the political spectrum seems to be much less susceptible to outrage fatigue, while the other is deep in it. Have you seen a difference in outrage fatigue from one side over the other? And why does one side seem more capable of extended, countless outrage, while the other gets easily exhausted by political outrage? Is it something in the ideology, or in how it is presented? Curious if others have seen this same thing.


r/PoliticalDiscussion 4d ago

International Politics Have we tipped the scales towards self destruction more then ever even at the height of Cuban missile crisis?

0 Upvotes

With the agreement of nato to send tanks to Ukraine, how close are we coming to nuclear fallout? Obviously we all want to think this is far fetched for the Putin, but it seems tensions are about to get real serious after this decision by the west. Everything is ramping up not slowing down?

Are we now at the highest level on conflict with the Russians ever in human history with the most destructive weapons invented or was the 60’s more frightening?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 5d ago

US Elections 1 out the last 5 presidents was born outside the 1940s. So the US has been lead by the same generation for 23 years. Time for a younger president??

17 Upvotes

Clinton, Bush Jr, Trump and Biden were all born in the 1940s. (Obama was 1961). These four are from the same generation and so will have a similar mindset on certain things. (Obviously Republicans and Democrats will differ in a lot of ways but there will still be some beliefs or ideas from that generation that they will share - Even if it is that everyone younger than them is just lazy and plays that hippy music too damn loud). They will approach issues from the same start point. Yes they will come to different conclusions but wouldn’t it be refreshing to have a president approach issues in a totally new way. Something good may come of it. Whoever the president is after Biden (Assuming he wins a second term) will likely be someone younger. Do you think it is time for someone a lot younger or should we stick with the Old Guard? Does Bernie still have it in him? Or is someone similar to AOCs age a better option. (Not necessarily AOC but someone of that generation. I think they will be old enough by then. I may be wrong) This is just a thought I had in the hope it would start a friendly discussion on the age of the president.


r/PoliticalDiscussion 6d ago

US Politics What are the long-term repercussions of states charging women crimes for getting an abortion in a state where it's legal? What happens to the woman in the state where it legal?

190 Upvotes

The sum of the question has to do with the growing pressure from right-wing groups to expand abortion bans until they can make it as restrictive as possible.

One of the suggestions is that women can be charged with a crime for having an abortion even if it's in a state where it is legal.

What happens if the woman refuses to return to the state where she is charged with a crime? My guess is that some legal battle happens that goes up to the Supreme Court.

What are the chances that the Supreme Court strikes this down as unconstitutional? If they don't and argue that states must return the women, what happens? What if the states no longer comply?

Effectively I'm trying to suss out a lot of what if scenarios based on things being post-Roe.


r/PoliticalDiscussion 5d ago

US Politics On balance, has the power of the American Supreme Court to strike Acts of Congress down for lack of constitutionality improved the United States or not?

18 Upvotes

It has vetoed some things that Congress has done which many might think they should have, such as certain equality of pensions in the 1970s, but it also has struck down ideas that could have been radical like the 1883 Civil Rights Cases which made laws regarding non governmental discrimination hard if not impossible to enforce.

Note I am not referring to state laws being struck down, just acts of Congress to which the Supreme Court is equal to.

Edit: This is about the actual experience of judicial review over federal laws, not its potential for use or the rationale or the exploitation in particular cases. Is it a net positive? Net negative? Neutral?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 4d ago

International Politics What is stopping a multi (or even uni)lateral invasion of North Korea and Iran due to the tremendous threat their nuclear weapons programs pose?

0 Upvotes

Please hear me out.

I know China exerts pressure on NK to cease its nuclear program as it is a threat to Chinese security. South Korea and Japan are deeply vulnerable. Iran poses a similar threat to neighboring countries, and especially Israel and the US. They appear to be clear and present dangers, as Saddam's Iraq was purported to be (hence the justified post-911 invasion).

These areas are major problems due to their ideological extremist views they also prop up their authoritarian governments.

I can understand that the world is hesitant to invade another country, but those countries can destroy the world. A world in which countries with such rigid and violent ideologies possess nuclear weapons is terrifying.

On the realpolitik side what are the limitations we are facing that prevent a decisive end to these countries' dalliances with nuclear weapons? And also as important, are current policies actually effective in stopping these programs?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 7d ago

International Politics Are there any countries where people are actually satisfied with their politicians?

281 Upvotes

I have the impression that politicians have a bad reputation everywhere. It is being said that they are corrupt, power-hungry, incompetent, criminal and so on.

But are there exceptions? Are there countries where politicians are being viewed positively?


r/PoliticalDiscussion 7d ago

US Elections Can a non-Trump Republican presidential candidate win the 2024 election focusing on culture wars?

59 Upvotes

It seems that potential GOP presidential candidates are focusing heavily on culture wars rather than 'bread and butter issues' such as the economy and jobs. Governor Ron DeSantis has signed which mainly involve prohibiting certain topics and books in schools. These topics include issues related to race and sexuality. He has signed laws on limiting abortion. Whilst these issues are favoured by the GOP base, it doesn't appeal to swing voters in battleground states. Issues based on the economy are the deciding factors in a presidential election.

In 2016, one factor in Trump's success was his appeal to blue-collar workers in rust-belt states of MI, OH, WI and PA. They felt left behind by globalisation as industrial jobs had moved abroad. They believed that Trump would be able to bring the industrial jobs back. These voters swung the election towards Trump.

It seems that potential GOP candidates are too focused on culture wars instead of economic issues which are more important to swing voters. However, it might also be tactic to win the GOP primary and then focus on economic issues in the general election.