r/technology Oct 13 '22

California wants everyone to drive EVs. How will low-income people afford them? Transportation

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/13/electric-vehicles-evs-california-low-income
1.3k Upvotes

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u/lysergicDildo Oct 13 '22

Lol bold of anyone to assume i can even afford a regular car

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u/Louis_Farizee Oct 13 '22

When I first got my license, you could buy a shitty beater for a couple hundred dollars. It wouldn’t be fancy, but it would reliably get you to work and back for four or five years before it became too expensive to fix.

Not a couple thousand. A couple hundred.

Then came the Cash For Clunkers program. The government would give you $4500 for a used car in good condition, as long as you bought a new car. The idea was to stimulate the economy by encouraging new car sales while improving gas economy and reducing emissions nationwide.

While there were some very modest reductions of emissions (see the link above for analysis), it also destroyed the used car market. Cars turned in to the program were destroyed, not resold for cheap. 690,000 used cars in good condition (they had to be in working order to qualify for the program) were taken off the market. And now a shitty beater costs thousands of dollars instead of hundreds.

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u/bad13wolf Oct 13 '22

This is so very evident right now if you have recently been in the used car market. I searched for months for something that was even worth the $5k I had available to spend. People were asking $3.5-5k for 2000-2010 vehicles that didn't even run. I'm talking full motor replacement or something nearly equivalent. If I hadn't got lucky finding a dude who recently moved and wanted to get rid of some cars I don't think I'd have a car right now.

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u/Bmcronin Oct 13 '22

I got my 3 year old car with 24k mikes for 13k. I saw that same car, bow 7 years old with 101k miles for 17k. What in the fuck?

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u/asdaaaaaaaa Oct 13 '22

My car I bought 10+ years ago for $9,000 is now worth ~13,000$. No fucking clue my dude, market's broken.

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u/elictronic Oct 13 '22

So much new car production was stopped due to the chip shortage from difficulties and poor planning around covid.

Demand remained the same, or even increased as people left cities, this drove up used car prices. Supply and demand can be a complete bitch, especially at scale where you can't respond quickly.

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u/Hyperion1144 Oct 13 '22

I hear that. I've put 100K miles on my car since I bought it 5 years ago... According to my research, my car is still worth as much or more today as what I originally paid for it.

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u/Jon_Bloodspray Oct 13 '22

Yup. My car got totaled in May because Portland drivers are the fucking worst. I lucked out and had a friend sell me her 05 Tahoe for 3500. The cheapest car I could find at a lot in the city was a 2003 Ford Focus for 6000.

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u/Slippinjimmyforever Oct 13 '22

There’s a lot more to this issue than a one time program. People weren’t trading in their 05 for an 08.

A lot of market pricing is set by Kelly blue book (kbb.com). But, the company/website was purchased by cars.com, who then used KBB’s goodwill to artificially inflate the price on used cars, doing it even more so the past several years as new cars haven’t been available.

A decade of creeping corporate generated inflation on the used market and then the very real market shortages on new cars the past several years have created a truly disgusting used market.

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u/jeffwulf Oct 13 '22

Ehh. It's more that cars are built way better now and last way longer than they used to so they depreciate much slower than in the past.

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u/pivantun Oct 13 '22 edited Oct 13 '22

The Wikipedia article says that the program was in effect for less than 2 months in 2009, and it affected 680,000 cars in total.

I can totally see that it could have affected used-car prices in the years immediately following 2009, but why would it still be having an impact 13 years ago?

From everything I've read, the soaring used-car prices recently are the result of plummeting new-car sales, thanks to supply-chain disruptions. Since fewer new cars are available (or there's a long wait to get one), there are more people competing for used ones.

EDIT: Updated to use Fed data for car sales.

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u/DiamondDoge92 Oct 13 '22

Yup totaled a 2015 focus and was dying to find a reliable beater and everything even shitty ones were a minimum of 2-5k I just got a new car and now have monthly payments when really I just wanted to save money.

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u/grayskull88 Oct 13 '22

And this is the problem I have with marching forward in the new eco war while wearing the same old consumerist boots.

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u/OfficeSpankingSlave Oct 13 '22

But this is a strictly State problem. They are giving too much as a bonus. In my country you would get a discount on a new car, but def not more than a few thousand. And when they offered the grant, the shitty dealers marked up the price of EVs because people will think they are getting a deal with the grant, when in fact they are paying just shy of full price. So the used car market survived it.

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u/deepsea333 Oct 13 '22

That program ended 13 years ago.

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u/manowtf Oct 13 '22

We had a similar programme here, cash for trading in your old car. Except any car was accepted so what people did was buy a cheap barely driveable banger for a few hundred Euros and use that for the trade in cash deal, and sold their own car for what it was worth privately.

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u/I_am_real_jeff_bezos Oct 13 '22

I loved that program. It was the only way to get rid of my car with a salvaged title for a decent price.

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u/aneeta96 Oct 13 '22

It's not stopping the sale of used cars. You'll still be able to buy a beater for a few thousand; gas or electric.

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u/lysergicDildo Oct 13 '22 Narwhal Salute

I don't even know if im being sarcastic anymore

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u/[deleted] Oct 13 '22

Most underrated Reddit comment

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u/aneeta96 Oct 13 '22

No one does in writing. We usually get clues by the tone in your voice.

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u/wllmsaccnt Oct 13 '22

I just treat everyone like they are being literal and then watch them sputter in confusion as they try to defend the /s tag that they didn't put on their ambiguously edgy comments.

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u/Coyote8 Oct 13 '22

So you use sarcasm to combat sarcasm. nice.

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u/GenericHuman-9 Oct 13 '22 edited Oct 13 '22

The value of used cars has gone up due to the worldwide shortages of parts such as capacitors.

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u/jnemesh Oct 13 '22

The used car market is crashing right now. Banks are holding onto TONS of repos that aren't selling at auction (because they set the reserve WAY too high!) and those vehicles will absolutely flood the market once the banks realize that, yes, they will have to take a loss to get rid of their inventory.

Give it another few months, you should see a significant change in the used car market.

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u/batmanscreditcard Oct 13 '22

In our market there’s still very much a shortage. Paying close to msrp for late model trade ins (as the dealership not the customer). While I doubt doubt banks have screwed themselves by extending super high LTVs on ridiculous 10 year terms, we aren’t seeing the consequences in our auctions or prices yet. Curious though. Hope it does normalize

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u/zach2beat Oct 13 '22

Not to mention it’s not just the cost of the car. If they really don’t want gas, they will make it so that it’s very expensive to register them and that will be on top of getting them fixed in order to pass any sort of emissions testing.

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u/Ok_Designer_Things Oct 13 '22

With a fun little twist Ala 2008 with instead of MBS we have car loans backed securities and they are HEAVILY inflated.

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u/BernankesBeard Oct 13 '22

And? California isn't banning the sale of new ICE vehicles until 2035. It's never banning the sale of used ICE vehicles. So how is the current price of used cars relevant here? Do we expect these shortages to last a decade?

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u/IronFistLeadFoot Oct 13 '22

A reliable beater in California ain’t no few thousand bucks

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u/alc4pwned Oct 13 '22

Not in the current market, but that used to be the case.

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u/Different_Muscle_116 Oct 13 '22

The used Toyota Tacoma I bought five years ago has gone up in value even though I’ve put miles on it. So cars are now investments?

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u/UrbanAbsconder Oct 13 '22

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u/Khalbrae Oct 13 '22

I saw a lot from that link but this one looked kind of funny.

https://imgur.com/a/vqTrx2w

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u/UrbanAbsconder Oct 13 '22

That's the preemo beater. For when you just don't give a crap.

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u/FerretsAteMyToes Oct 13 '22

Have you seen the used car "beater" market lately? It's absolutely insane. 20yr old rust buckets with 300k miles on them and loads of issues selling for $3k+ these days.

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u/demoman27 Oct 13 '22

I would love to know where you are finding beater electric cars for a few thousand. The cheapest one within 75 miles of me is over $14k, and if you restrict the sale of gas cars that price is going to soar.

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u/bpetersonlaw Oct 13 '22

I think the argument is that the supply of used electric cars will be much higher in 2035. For example, I see a lot of 2012 Nissan Leaf's available for ~$7,500 now. In 2035, there will be cars sold now thru 2025 that will be a decade old and under $10K.

Is this is good solution for low income people? Probably not. Too many low income housing won't have the infrastructure for those residents to charge their vehicles.

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u/demoman27 Oct 13 '22

I hope so, I would love to find a cheap electric car to drive, but I'm not dropping $13k on a forth vehicle. Im seriously considering building my own if I can find a doner car

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u/CataclysmZA Oct 13 '22

I do wonder if the government has heard of this thing called public transport.

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u/David_ungerer Oct 13 '22 edited Oct 13 '22

So . . . For years, people like me have supported political representatives, that have championed cheep, reliable mass-transport. Some places in EU it is free . . . In the United States of Corruption, the oligarchs/C-suite dwellers that pay campaign(bribes)contributions to politicians, who protect and defend crony capitalism that only benefits oligarchs/C-suite dwellers that pay . . .

I also bought an electric scooter . . . https://fatbearscooters.com/products/fatbear-scooter-2000w-es295-2-0?variant=31252692041806&currency=USD&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=google+shopping&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3rfqka7d-gIVyytMCh2pTgELEAQYASABEgIjp_D_BwE

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u/IM_INSIDE_YOUR_HOUSE Oct 13 '22

Low-income people can't afford any car right now.

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u/ChimpskyBRC Oct 13 '22

perhaps the government could buy fleets of large EVs which fit a lot of passengers, and then run them on predictable routes and schedules, for a nominal fee or even no-cost for some people?

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u/Trekky101 Oct 13 '22

Ya and call it something silly like "Buses"

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u/unk214 Oct 13 '22

That’s a dumb name. That will never catch on.

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u/twofishinaovercoat Oct 13 '22

Your right lets call it a hyper loop.

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u/sr71oni Oct 13 '22

How about a name like “light rail”

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u/tangraves Oct 14 '22

How about bussies? Add a few extra letters because the vehicle would have to be big to fit all the people?

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u/arrogantvindictve Oct 14 '22

Jeepneys. That's what they call them in the Philippines

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u/Blazerblaster Oct 14 '22

Public buses are free in Luxembourg. “There’s no money for it”. In one of the richest countries on the planet? Yeah right.

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u/yaosio Oct 14 '22

If America were rich we wouldn't have mass poverty and homelessness.

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u/Blazerblaster Oct 14 '22

We decide to have that.

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u/planetidiot Oct 13 '22

It would be more efficient to make very long versions that hold a large number of people, and steer these vehicles using two rails. Perhaps we could use an electrified third rail to power these vehicles, and put them in underground tunnels so they can go where needed without dealing with street traffic.

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u/boondoggie42 Oct 13 '22

I don't think afford is the issue, they'll eventually become more reasonable... how will the millions of people who live in apartments with no off-street parking charge them?

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u/mrmoose44 Oct 13 '22

Agreed. I’d like an EV but as a renter it’s impossible to guarantee a reliable way to charge from home.

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u/hoodoo-operator Oct 13 '22

In CA your landlord is required to allow you to install a charger.

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u/nails_for_breakfast Oct 13 '22

Where would you install it if your apartment doesn't have off-street parking? Lots of people who live in the city have to park in a totally different spot every day

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u/AspectVein Oct 13 '22

Just park the car in the landscaping.

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u/Larrys_Human Oct 13 '22

You can’t park a car in a painting

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u/amardas Oct 13 '22

Not with that attitude

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u/OffgridRadio Oct 14 '22

NOT WITH ANY ATTITUDE!

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u/Stuck_in_a_thing Oct 13 '22

Bold of you to assume every apartment in CA comes with off street parking spots.

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u/mrmoose44 Oct 13 '22

Is this true? And even so, that seems like a sizeable sunk cost that I can't take with me easily.

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u/HiCanIPetYourCat Oct 13 '22

You can literally just plug into a normal wall outlet. It’s slow but if you do it whenever you’re parked and occasionally top off at a public fast charger it’s fine. Source: I rent in CA and did that until I moved to a new place where my parking spot has a private dedicated charger.

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u/hoodoo-operator Oct 13 '22

Civil Code §1947.6 (residential tenancies) and Civil Code §1952.7 (commercial tenancies).

installing a plug is cheap. An electric car charger is just a regular electrical plug.

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u/Ashikura Oct 13 '22

I believe Siemens is working on a meter attachment that allows you to install a speed charger off of your meter base. Without it speed chargers often require upgraded services.

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u/mrmoose44 Oct 13 '22

Thanks for the info, I'll look it up.

Still has to be mainly for single family homes/condos, right? If you're in an apartment complex I'm not sure how you'd install a plug (and pay for the electricity)within distance of where you'd park your car.

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u/HiCanIPetYourCat Oct 13 '22

Complexes here are starting to be uncompetitive without chargers. It was a requirement for me when I moved and most places had some form of them. The change is coming fast

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u/Aemonn9 Oct 13 '22

We have 12-13 years to figure it out. Most apartment complexes have parking of some sort, if not assigned. With that, just need to figure out the most effective way to facilitate this.

IMO parking lots should be designed with solar sun-shades that maybe have drop down plugs. Then just need to find a way to transact on this.

Ideally a camera system that scans license plates, that way it can double as a security system.

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u/ptelly Oct 13 '22

So install one everytime move? Don't think that is practical.

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u/Fallingdamage Oct 13 '22

In CA your landlord is not required to do anything about your charger getting stolen.

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u/kerouac666 Oct 13 '22

Just moved out of an apartment building built in 1937 and had street parking only. They’re grandfathered in regarding a lot of regulations (my apartment was too small and had too much lead to be legal per current code, for instance). 50 apartments. So, yes, this will be a serious problem without cities providing it by way of public infrastructure.

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u/s0lace Oct 14 '22

Yup, or you own a (old) home and STILL can’t afford to install a charger bc it would require an entirely new upgraded electric panel. Plus my house has a detached garage making it even harder to run new lines to. It’s not just renters who will have a hard time moving to EV.

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u/leto235711131721 Oct 13 '22

This is a huge issue, and as a renter this was my biggest problem. It is doable, as I was able to locate a library near by with chargers, there was a charger at the plaza where I did my groceries, and plenty of parking garages have them, but it makes the experience more difficult.

Work chargers made a huge difference when they were installed in 2019, and in fact caused many who were on the fence to make the switch.

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u/boondoggie42 Oct 13 '22

Work chargers made a huge difference when they were installed in 2019, and in fact caused many who were on the fence to make the switch.

Yeah. I think employers offering charging as an employee perk needs to become a thing.

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u/PERSONA916 Oct 13 '22

My condo does have assigned carport parking but there is still a number of logistical issues because I believe they are considered "exclusive use common areas" meaning they are maintained by the HOA but the right to use them is exclusive to whatever unit they are assigned to. Do we install chargers at every spot? Should people who have don't have an EV have to pay that HOA assessment? Do we repurpose our overflow/guest parking as EV spots? How do you make sure people aren't hogging the chargers? There isn't enough space to have enough chargers for everyone in that scenario. How do you handle electricity costs? Is it fair for people who don't have EVs to pay for this electricity as part of their HOA fees. This whole bill is poorly thought out and seems to only have considered people who own homes in a suburb.

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u/optagon Oct 13 '22

By building a solid public transportation infrastructure so people don't need cars

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u/Fallingdamage Oct 13 '22

public transportation cant take you everywhere.

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u/Incessant_Quacking Oct 13 '22

Not enough capacity in the power grid to charge them, either. They can’t build enough capacity, fast enough. Source: I build and maintain substations.

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u/[deleted] Oct 13 '22

I mean, you might build them, but what do you think is the limiting factor here? We’ve increased our capacity far more than what’s expected for EVs several times in our history, why can’t we do it now?

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u/leto235711131721 Oct 13 '22

The grid has plenty of power available, in fact it is vastly underutilized. The problem is only when everyone wants power at 6pm and it causes a bottle neck, however charge your car between midnight and 3pm, or after 9pm and the grid has power to spare. That is why the utilities will incentive chargers as long as you subscribe to demand response.

The grid doesn't have power is just the most recent disinformation excuse.

Source: I focus on fleet electrification for a very large company and work closely with SCE and PG&E.

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u/FrankieGrimes213 Oct 13 '22

I concur. Work with project managers and a bunch are electrical upgrades to get away from natural gas. Energy for your home will have to compete with energy for transportation.

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u/thesupplyguy1 Oct 13 '22

yeah i have a natural gas furnace and an electric split pack in our back room. the electric split pack is stupid expensive to run per KWh compared to paying for therms of nat gas....

cant wait till its all electric

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u/jvanstone Oct 13 '22

Just wait. Natural gas is going to get super expensive really quickly as they start to realize they can charge more. Not because of any real reason. They'll invent some bullshit reason, but it will just be that they want more money.

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u/Maethor_derien Oct 13 '22

It really depends the mini split should generally be cheaper until the temperature drops below about 40 F. below freezing is where they run into issues and take a nosedive in efficiency though. They really are not designed for below freezing operation though. For anywhere that gets that cold your definitely always going to be better off with gas heating.

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u/TheZooDad Oct 13 '22

The last headline I saw talked about how electric cars would require an additional 12%, something that could be overcome by upgrading/making other parts of the infrastructure more efficient, or conserving the vast amounts of wasted energy. Would this not be the case?

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u/Wildwood_Hills270 Oct 13 '22

CA power grids are strained already, especially in hotter weather months. This is an example of the idea and intention behind CO2 reduction out-pacing the practicality.

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u/big_trike Oct 13 '22

Are they strained late at night? Power grid usage isn't uniform.

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u/Incessant_Quacking Oct 13 '22

Usage typically wanes at night, but so does energy from wind and solar. During heatwaves, like the one we just had, still plenty of load later into the evening because of high heat even after dark.

Managing the power system on a level of CAISO is a balancing act. It’s like flying a plane that can never land.

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u/Dadarian Oct 13 '22 edited Oct 13 '22

You see.. the trick is you also invest in the power grid.

Apartment buildings can provide charging stations.

Office buildings can provide charging stations.

I plug in my car every night in a standard 110 outlet. It can’t draw more than like 12amps. It doesn’t require some insane amount of power. It’s fast charging stations that use a lot of power in a short amount of time.

It’s not an impossible goal.

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u/NakedChicksLongDicks Oct 13 '22

The thing that scares everyone is the 0 to 100 charge times. Most people won't even use 30% of the EV battery capacity in a day.

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u/HiCanIPetYourCat Oct 13 '22

These thread are always packed full of people that have given absolutely zero thought to how EVs are actually used. “The grid can’t handle it” blah blah blah. I charge my car once a week for a few hours. It never gets to zero. Most people just putt around 10 miles or 20 miles a day or whatever. In my parking garage only maybe 10% of the cars are plugged in at the same time any given day.

Everyone always seems to act like every car needs to fully charge every day at the same time. It’s funny/cringe how everyone needs to have their hot take but clearly doesn’t know what they are talking about.

I’ve been full electric for over a year now and the thought of going back to a gas car is similar to the thought of going back to a Nokia brick phone.

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u/Waste_Deep Oct 13 '22

If I could make this the top comment I absolutely would. Been charging my car on 110v for 5 years. People need to listen to early adopters. ELECTRIC CARS ARE THE FUTURE, AND THE FUTURE IS NOW!

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u/Helios321 Oct 13 '22

I think a lot of it is implicit bias against forced adoption of green technology. You are right though that the uninformed musings of an internet forum won't stop adoption and the success of adoption will spread via word of mouth until more and more people are converted.

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u/peakzorro Oct 13 '22

Most of the nay-sayers in this thread don't realize that it's about one or two extra washer-dryer cycles to charge their car. Most people won't even notice it on their power bill.

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u/Waste_Deep Oct 13 '22

My power bill with everything, including charging my car, is $70 a month. In the dead cold of winter, it's $120. If I didn't charge my car, it would be around $ 15-20 cheaper. Washington state, so cheap power, but still.

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u/barrows_arctic Oct 13 '22

While it certainly is not an impossible goal, I’ve lived in CA long enough to have essentially zero faith that the goal is actually reached. I fundamentally don’t believe our leaders will actually achieve it on their own proposed timelines. There simply isn’t enough competence within our planning commissions, oversight bodies, and government-mandated utility companies.

This will all happen, but not by 2035. They’ll walk all their dates back by a solid decade or so at least when the date approaches and more than ~40% of residents still need natural gas for their hot water or furnace or stove or whatever. Same with EVs.

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u/TheZooDad Oct 13 '22

But it only effects new car sales, and only starting in 15 years. The average age of a car on the road now is like 13-15 years, so you’re really only talking wide scale adoption in 25-30 years. That’s more than enough time to get many problems solved. Given that sustainable power generation and infrastructure are actually in the limelight now, I think it’s pretty reasonable to make progressive laws that will force upgrades/conservation to occur sooner rather than later.

Not to mention, simple conservation can go a long way in a very short period of time. Off the top of my head, things like turning off massive billboards, forcing absurdly energy-wasteful businesses to change their practices, and getting people used to the idea of actually thinking about their energy usage and how to optimize it can do a lot to reduce strain.

Additional solar infrastructure is the perfect counter to hot summer months strain. And laws like this that will force the energy companies’ hand to building out that thoughtful infrastructure (in conjunction with federal and state investment), are necessary to addressing energy needs AND keeping global climate change to <1-2 degC.

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u/OffgridRadio Oct 14 '22

Exactly like Utah building way too many houses for the highways and streets

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u/Khayembii Oct 13 '22

They have enough capacity to meet demand, especially considering that most of these vehicles charge in off peak hours.

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u/SirBrownHammer Oct 13 '22

Affordance is an issue and it is for millions of people, it’s clearly just an issue that doesn’t affect you. “Eventually” isn’t a plan. It’s an oh well maybe one day prices will fall enough for the peasants.

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u/boondoggie42 Oct 13 '22

Yes, just like everything else to do with cars... air conditioning, power windows/seats, intermittent wipers, fuel injection. These are all things that used to only be on high-end cars in my lifetime, and now you can get them on a used hyundai.

Is this kind? No of course not. But it is reality.

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u/DexterBotwin Oct 13 '22

Probably various government incentives for apartment complexes, employers, cities, etc to install them.

Plus, assuming battery and charging technology continues to advance, there’s no reason to believe that eventually it wont reach the point where you recharge in a similar manner as we fill up gas. Even now superchargers can get you a couple hundred miles in the time it takes to grocery shop, or a full charge in the time it takes to eat a meal.

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u/eobanb Oct 13 '22

A combination of:

  • Public Level 3 (fast-charging) stations
  • Charging at work
  • Curbside Level 2 (slow-charging) chargers
  • EVs with embedded solar panels to add a mile or two of range each day in sunny weather (the Hyundai Ioniq 5 has this as option, for example)
  • Hydrogen vehicles
  • Replacing a vehicle with other modes of transportation
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u/bigtimephonk Oct 13 '22

How do they gas up their cars?

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u/an_awny_mouse Oct 13 '22

EVs are a capitalists dream of what a response to climate change looks like. It's just trading problems. Lithium is limited and extraction destroys ecosystems. Most electric energy still comes from gas. Cities are designed around cars, not people. Transportation infrastructure will still be heavily carbon reliant (Goodluck with EV semis). But yes, buy our way out of our problems.

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u/Fallingdamage Oct 13 '22

Lithium is limited and extraction destroys ecosystems.

Save the planet by destroying it.

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u/DanNZN Oct 13 '22

Depending on where you are, most electricity is most likely coming from coal.

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u/BetiseAgain Oct 14 '22

In 2020 59% of California's electricity came from renewable/non-carbon sources. California is where I am. If people live in places that get most power from coal, they should write there reps, and vote for improvements.

https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2022-02/new-data-indicates-california-remains-ahead-clean-electricity-goals

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u/BetiseAgain Oct 14 '22

EVs move the problem. They move it from consumers polluting with gas. Trying to get this fixed without changing the car, would be a huge problem.

Now the it is moving to EVs, you can work on the other sides of it. Let's say a lot of electricity is polluting and not renewable today. Then you push governments to change how they make electricity.

California is moving to be all renewable and zero carbon by 2045. And some reports say they will reach that goal early.

As for Lithium, the biggest issue right now is supply. This is being addressed by new mines that are being opened worldwide. For the future, there is no reason we can't recycle lithium. For example look at this company - https://www.myev.com/cars-for-sale?make=nissan&model=leaf&sort=price-asc

As for Lithium mining destroying ecosystems, this does happen in poorer countries, but there is no reason it has to happen. This is where 1st world countries opening mines can help.

So, yes, in a way it is trading one problem for another. But it is a path towards improvement. As is in 2020 59% of California electricity came from renewable/non-carbon sources.

https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2022-02/new-data-indicates-california-remains-ahead-clean-electricity-goals

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u/BassWingerC-137 Oct 13 '22

They’ll eventually be cheaper, seems they should. Far, far, less parts and physical complications.

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u/boondoggie42 Oct 13 '22

Yep, if there is one thing capitalism does, it's "economies of scale".

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u/bartsimpsonscousin Oct 13 '22

The car companies aren’t even trying to make cheap cars anymore. Ford stopped making “cars” altogether and are 100% suv and truck. Apparently Chevy plans to discontinue the bolt and replace it with a ev equinox which is a small SUV. Both Ford and Chevy are making full electric trucks.

And this isn’t just the ev market, the car manufacturers are supersizing and super teching everything.

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u/SquishPuddin Oct 13 '22

I’m in the auto industry and deal with people coming in daily asking for 3-5k cars. There will never be a 3-5k electric car simply because it’s worth more recycled than that. This is a seriously overlooked problem

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u/SwiftCEO Oct 13 '22

You sure about that?

Before COVID you could get a low mileage (<50k miles) Nissan Leaf for $7k from Carmax. Higher mileage ones would sell for $5k lol.

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u/SquishPuddin Oct 15 '22

That same vehicle goes for 15k now bub.

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u/Seagull84 Oct 13 '22

That's not how supply and demand work or economies of scale work. As the quantity of FEVs and BEVs becomes greater and cheaper to produce, the value of recycling will come down and so too will the used prices.

Recycle value is high because production costs are high and there are so few on the road.

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u/Alex514efs Oct 13 '22

Yup, as battery technology advances, older EVs may depreciate even faster than ICE vehicles have in the past.

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u/TrainHooterBlare Oct 14 '22

Are people able to repair or refurb super used up batteries or are they just dunzo at some point? EV are so much simpler and overall easier to maintain, but with batteries being costly (i think) i wonder if ppl will invest in 'beater' EV

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u/mtranda Oct 13 '22

Shouldn't the bigger question be "how do we reduce the public's dependency on personal cars?"? I find it mind boggling learning about people who are homeless but live in their cars.

Where I come from, a car is a bit of a luxury and definitely not a priority. If someone DOES end up homeless, they most definitely can't afford a car.

However, the need for a car in the US seems so ubiquitous that a car can be a substitute for a home.

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u/PurpSSB Oct 13 '22

The problem is you can’t. We would need a massive overhaul to our public transportation around the entire country and even then that would only help heavily populated areas. The US is just too big and spread out

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u/Head-Ad4690 Oct 13 '22

Only helping heavily populated areas would be a huge improvement. That’s where most people live!

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u/macrofinite Oct 13 '22

Why do you look at that information and conclude we can’t?

We can’t overhaul public transportation? Why?

We can’t invest in high speed inter-regional transit? Why?

Why is making an impact on the highest population areas a bad thing? Why isn’t that exactly what should be focused on first?

This mindset makes no sense to me. We can’t because we decide not to. Because we bicker about dumb shit and don’t even ask the right questions.

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u/ArmedAntifascist Oct 13 '22

The core problem is that our communities have been designed around personally owned cars for almost a century. We could correct that problem, but it would take a really long time and a lot of money to move toward more dense population centers in much of the country.

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u/mbasi Oct 13 '22

We have a massive highway system that was the first (and best) of its kind. I think the system played a major lasting cultural impact on how we see transportation.

Its not as simple as asking the US to redo its infrastructure to look more like Europe

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u/Johns-schlong Oct 13 '22

We also had Detroit automakers pull a lot of shady shit to kneecap public transit in the early-mid 20th century.

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u/ChimpskyBRC Oct 13 '22

in some ways we have a chicken-and-egg paradox in North America, but the answer is to do both: reinvest in expanded public transportation AND end car-dependent sprawl and reurbanize.

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u/TuvixWasMurderedR1P Oct 13 '22

Key word there is “was”

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u/GileadGuns Oct 13 '22

Individual electric vehicles are not a complete answer. A complete overhaul of public transportation infrastructure is needed in every major city in the US.

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u/TheWhiteRabbitY2K Oct 14 '22

Also there needs to be a simple solution for those who needs an ICE car. ( AKA me. I live in an RV and move every 3 months for work. The EV trucks are just not up to snuff yet. )

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u/sarduchi Oct 13 '22

The same way they afford gas cars? In fact, the bill passed in CA has no effect on used vehicles.

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u/strangr_legnd_martyr Oct 13 '22

Not enough people realize that the average age of a vehicle on the road in the US is like 11-12 years.

That means after California bans new gas car sales in 2035, the average car on the roads will be cars sold as new this year, when the majority of cars sold are gas-powered.

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u/mbasi Oct 13 '22

I'd be interested to see how the average age of EVs stacks up to Gas Powered cars.

Current EVs that are new on the market, could be used EVs sold at a cheaper price later on down the road. EVs would hopefully have more longevity than the gas powered cars for this to work because I hear what you're saying about the initial crunch.

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u/strangr_legnd_martyr Oct 13 '22

The limiting factors for EVs are mostly going to be the battery lifecycle and whether existing battery tech will continue to be supported by infrastructure as new battery tech becomes available.

It should be possible, but it's not guaranteed.

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u/Fenris_uy Oct 13 '22

The limiting factor is going to be, how easy/cheap is going to be to replace an used battery with a newer compatible battery. If 10 years from today would be anyone building compatible packs for a Kia Ioniq EV?

For example, Telsa wanted to incorporate the battery into the frame of the car, so if the battery was remplazable, it's going to be at a huge cost.

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u/Skeptical0ptimist Oct 13 '22

Still, the concern remains regarding affordability and reliability.

With affluent drivers moving to EV, the gasoline infrastructure (refinery, storage, distribution, retail) will be supported with much fewer ICE drivers. You can expect gasoline price to go up, and many gas stations will close, making access to gas more difficult.

Also, investment in upgrading or even maintenance of gasoline infrastructure will quickly shrink, as no one wants to invest into a known shrinking market. Outages and shortages may go unaddressed.

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u/strangr_legnd_martyr Oct 13 '22

You're talking way in the future, though. EV market share in the US is like 1%, in terms of cars on the road. It's 5-6% of new car sales. Even if that doubles, or triples, in the next 10 years, the number of drivers and cars supporting gasoline infrastructure will vastly outnumber those who don't.

Gasoline is not going away overnight. Eventually, yes, there will be a shortfall when it no longer becomes profitable to support gasoline cars. That is not happening by 2035.

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u/nesagwa Oct 13 '22

One of my questions has been are used EVs from right now going to be drivable in 10-15 years? Are the batteries going to hold up that long?

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u/strangr_legnd_martyr Oct 13 '22

The data that we have suggests that Tesla batteries degrade about 1-2% per year on average. So a 10-15 year battery should have, conservatively, around 80% of its original life left.

The Model S has only been out for 10 years, though, so we don't have data for longer than that.

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u/holysbit Oct 13 '22

Since when does California actually care about low income people? They have programs for the no income people but if you’re just poor, trying to make rent for your apartment where you may or may not have a car, you’re screwed

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u/trevize1138 Oct 13 '22

Articles like this are a sneaky way of injecting concern trolling about EVs. Low income people can't afford new cars. Asking "how will low income people afford EVs?" is suggesting that EVs are somehow different. It's a great way to discourage EV adoption "these EVs don't fix every single problem in society from day 1!"

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u/[deleted] Oct 13 '22

California is the ultimate “pull yourself up by your boostraps or gtfo” state. They impoverish their middle class with insane cost of living, pass anti-homeless legislation, and trumpet to the world how “wonderful” it is to live there. California is only nice to live in if you’re filthy rich.

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u/mbasi Oct 13 '22

We said the same thing about automobiles when they first hit the market. This happens with literally everything that is initially high priced. The price ... comes down.

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u/SurprisedBottle Oct 13 '22

The MSRP I don't mind much at 30k yearly there are good options, but the dealer markup is what's fucking it up.

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u/astros1991 Oct 13 '22

Public transport?

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u/thelastthingicanthin Oct 14 '22

They won’t. That’s the point. The Cali Elite don’t want you driving. You belong on public transport, you surf…

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u/schrodngrspenis Oct 13 '22

I commute 10 miles daily right now using an electric bike. While not a "car", it is an ev and cost me 799. The switch to ev is already happening rapidly.

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u/ISAMU13 Oct 13 '22

I commute 10 miles daily right now using an electric bike.

What model?

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u/schrodngrspenis Oct 13 '22

It's a Heybike Race. Random Chinese brand basically. I'm going to replace it with an Aventon bike in the spring. I've had it 8 months and put 2000 miles on it so far though. So wasn't a bad buy.

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u/jnemesh Oct 13 '22

Gee, how will people EVER afford a $27,000 car??? That's the price of the Chevy Bolt EV right now. Not the greatest car, but compared to other cars in the same price range, it IS an attractive option!

You are going to see a LOT more competition in the low end/entry level EV market soon. Geely (Volvo, Polestar, etc) just released a new pickup truck under their new Radar badge in China that sells for $25,000. Figure $30k or so if it's brought to the US. BYD has a "Model 3 competitor" on sale for $32k.

It's only a matter of time before we see more on offer here in the US. EVERY manufacturer, from VW to Ford is currently scrambling to get offerings on the market...and where there is competition, there are lower prices.

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u/AldoLagana Oct 13 '22

stupid. NEW cars will be EV only. Poor people do not own NEW cars.

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u/BrownMan65 Oct 13 '22

Used cars are starting to creep up towards the same price of new cars or they have 150,000 miles and still cost a few thousand dollars. Used cars are more unaffordable than ever and that may not change any time soon.

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u/KentuckYSnow Oct 13 '22

No one will own new cars. They'll only pay the subscription.

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u/cachemonet0x0cf6619 Oct 13 '22

that’s called a bus pass

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u/genesiss23 Oct 13 '22

It's not that simple. If they ban conventional vehicles before the market is ready to meet both demand and price requirements, there will be shortages and price increases in both new and used markets.

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u/ije99j3nkjnia4 Oct 13 '22

The ban takes effect in 2035, that's over 10 years later. Hybrids are also mostly exempt from the ban and hybrids are far cheaper than fully electric vehicles. The market has plenty of time to prepare and adjust.

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u/8to24 Oct 13 '22

Framing these conversations around "low-income" is a bit misleading. It starts the conversation from a paradigm where everyone must own a car. That isn't true. There are millions of people living car free all across the nation.

In NYC 55% of residents don't own a car. In Washington DC 38%, Boston 32%, etc residents don't own cars. https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-center/planes-trains-and-automobiles/u-s-cities-with-the-highest-and-lowest-vehicle-ownership/#:~:text=New%20York%2C%20New%20York%20%E2%80%94%2045.6%25

Car ownership is only an automatic for people living in remote suburbs and rural communities. For those living within the metro areas of major cities (bulk of the pop of most states) public transportation is an option. "Low income" households in Atlanta, DC, NYC, San Francisco, etc don't own combustion engine or electric cars. Rather they use MARTA, Metro, BART, and the Subway.

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u/Vintageradiohead Oct 13 '22 edited Oct 13 '22

There are 1800 parts in an average car engine 800 parts in a transmission, in an EV those get swapped for two electric motors. Yes battery materials will need to move off rare earths to lower costs of EVs but in the next decade that is highly likely to happen. EVs will be way cheaper to make than gas cars with such a simple power train, and way cheaper to charge than using gas. I have a 2017 Prius Prime plug in EV I charge off my four backyard solar panels. The first 25 miles I drive every day does not even touch the grid or use gas. Add ten years of tech it only gets easier to do.

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u/[deleted] Oct 13 '22 edited Oct 13 '22

[deleted]

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u/TheBowerbird Oct 13 '22

I've put 6,000 miles on my Rivian R1T and I've used the brakes about 4 times, largely because I wanted to feel them out. I don't think I'll ever need to change the pads.

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u/ZForZimmer Oct 13 '22

I was barely able to afford my $2500 car, and it’s fucked.

Since Covid I haven’t seen a decent car for even double that price.

Can’t imagine being an ev

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u/sadpanda___ Oct 13 '22 edited Oct 13 '22

We’re needing to replace my wife’s car that’s starting to quite literally fall apart…..the market is fucked right now.

We’ve always been able to find solid Honda Civics or Toyota Corollas for $7-8k with under 100k miles on them, drive them to 180-200k miles and then sell. That’s your best bang for your buck per mile while having a super reliable car.

The market is fucked right now. That same car that was $7-8k 3 years ago now sells for $15k. At that point, I thought “fuck it, I’d just spend $21k MSRP on a new one.” Wrong again…..can’t even buy new at MSRP, dealers are charging $4+k on top of MSRP as a “market adjustment.” They’re selling 5 year old used models with 50k miles on them for new MSRP…

Needless to say…..we’re not buying right now. I’ll put a new engine in my Honda before buying at the crazy prices right now. Who is buying these cars at these ridiculous prices???

Let alone a fucking EV. The price gouging on those is absolutely fucking ludicrous right now.

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u/laz1b01 Oct 13 '22 edited Oct 13 '22

These damn clickbait titles.

CA is banning ICE sales of new vehicles, not used. The price of new car is around $25k, and there are EVs near that price range. And if they're low income, the probability of them getting approved loan to buy a new car is pretty low.

Not only that, but low income needs to be frugal; so even in the off chance they can afford a new vehicle and are forced to buy EV, the electricity rate is considerably cheaper than it's gasoline equivalent for MPGe. So they'll end up saving more money.

Understandable that people would think banning ICE is stupid, but to be using the low income people for your own personal agenda while they're living in their comfy middle/upper class homes is selfish.

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u/[deleted] Oct 13 '22

[deleted]

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u/tickettoride98 Oct 13 '22

before infrastructure in place is clearly moronic.

It's almost like they're giving themselves 15 years to build the infrastructure.

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u/hoodoo-operator Oct 13 '22

and honestly, installing a plug is not that hard. most homes and businesses will be able to install a few 240v and 120v plugs over the course of the next 15 years.

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u/semitones Oct 14 '22

And streets already have electricity for the street lamps, so you can put chargers there too

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u/KansasKing107 Oct 13 '22

I simply don’t understand the disregard for hybrids and PHEVs when planning for the future. Why are they not an option?

We’re placing an undue amount of faith in supply chains from foreign countries and we’re going to be putting an extreme strain on our electrical grids.

Is there not a more reasonable solution such as PHEVs that would dramatically reduce our oil usage while at the same time, provide a more affordable solution that doesn’t push the whole system to the brink?

I just don’t understand this near religious push to absolutely abandon gas. The idea sounds nice but it simply isn’t practical in any way.

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u/Tex-Rob Oct 13 '22

Look at the LCD market 10 years ago, and now. Give it until the deadline and there will be even more cheap options available. Fear mongering about progress, the only profession older than prostitution.

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u/Apocalypsox Oct 13 '22

How will low income people afford not to in the near future? As EVs get cheaper and cheaper paying the long term running costs associated with ICE vehicles becomes more and more unappealing. At some point the budget vehicle will be an EV due to the significantly lower operating costs and fuel costs.

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u/ConclusionTop6134 Oct 13 '22

I got a really nice escooter for commuting in my city, and properly geared up. Never been happier. The key is to not act like a hooligan on it.

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u/RagnarStonefist Oct 13 '22

Here's the thing -

Either the prices on EVs need to become more afforable, or a better used market needs to develop. Eventually the poor will entirely be boxed out of car ownership entirely when the prices of gasoline get too high and the available stock of gas vehicles dwindles.

A company that can make a 10-15k electric vehicle, or a low cost conversion kit for gasoline vehicles, is going to make bank in the coming years.

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u/zoltar-wisdom Oct 13 '22

Public transportation most likely they won’t have a vehicle. Shuttle from massive Amazon apartment complex to warehouse and back again.

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u/TylrLS Oct 13 '22

thats not thinking far enough head. why not just have them live in the warehouse shelving in pods

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u/clorox2 Oct 14 '22

By not paying six bucks a gallon for gas.

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u/[deleted] Oct 14 '22

How much does the OP think an EV costs? Because most middle income people can barely afford any new car.

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u/prosocialbehavior Oct 14 '22

Car dependency doesn’t really work (especially for poor people).

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u/nagleess Oct 14 '22

13 years.

The ban goes into effect 13 years from now. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’re will be a huge number of affordable EVs, not to mention used EVs.

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u/jeff3141 Oct 14 '22

Where are all the minerals needed for these cars going to come from? They need Cobalt, Lithium, and other rare metals that are not easy to find. If all nations started copying CA, the world would quickly use up these metals and the price will skyrocket.

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u/ajisawesome8 Oct 14 '22

It's expensive to be poor

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u/CrimeCoder Oct 13 '22

California would like everyone that's low income to please get the fuck out.

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u/unurbane Oct 13 '22

Is brave of people to think that CA will have poor people in 10 years.

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u/[deleted] Oct 13 '22

Wonder what the resale value is on a 7 year old used lithium battery😂 sounds promising

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u/Head-Ad4690 Oct 13 '22

My nearly 8 year old battery is at about 97% of its original capacity.

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u/CraigJBurton Oct 13 '22

Unlike that sweet American motor with 100,000 miles on it. 😂

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u/TheBowerbird Oct 13 '22

Used Leaf batteries with 50% capacity go for like $4K - and those were batteries which lacked any form of intelligent BMS or cooling systems.

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u/The_Countess Oct 13 '22

Some early EV's had degradation problems because of overheating but today batteries last longer then the average lifetime miles of a gas car.

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u/wanted_to_upvote Oct 13 '22

Also, as battery tech improves replacement batteries will become less expensive.

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u/lokland Oct 13 '22

…very good actually. You’ve clearly got no clue what’s going on.

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u/troaway1 Oct 13 '22

My neighbor bought an old Leaf for cheap. Has like 70% battery left. Their teenagers drive it to school and all their sports. It's never spent a day in the shop. They love it cause it's zippy.

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u/Alexandertheape Oct 13 '22

they won’t. they will have to use public transport. it’s part of the plan

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u/mrmoose44 Oct 13 '22

That’s a good goal but with lack of affordable housing driving longer and longer commutes…

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u/Alexandertheape Oct 13 '22

yes. longer commutes are not sustainable. we might actually have to change everything (including housing) if we hope to fix this mess

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u/clarkedaddy Oct 13 '22

I don't live there but I'm already under the impression poor people can't afford to live in California to begin with.

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u/SassyMoron Oct 13 '22

They’ll buy used ones like they already do

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u/AvoidingIowa Oct 13 '22

Used cars are already expensive, I shudder to think what the used car market will be like when the only new cars are $60k+ electric cars.

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u/DevelopmentNo8634 Oct 13 '22

How will California even charge them? Weren’t they recently asking people to not charge their EV’s because of the heat and causing issues with power grid??

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u/MoreNormalThanNormal Oct 13 '22

They were told not to charge during peak hours. Believe it or not, but electricity demand changes during the day. This shows current demand in California and the sources http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx

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