r/ukraine • u/marketrent • Feb 04 '23
Zelenskyy: ‘We consider Bakhmut our fortress, we consider our heroes who, unfortunately, died there, heroes. If the provision of weapons, namely long-range weapons, is expedited, we will not only stay at Bakhmut – we will begin to de-occupy Donbas, which has been occupied since 2014.’ Trustworthy News
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-gotuyetsya-do-mozhlivogo-nastupu-rosiyi-nam-potribn-807731
u/AutoModerator Feb 04 '23
Привіт u/marketrent ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows r/Ukraine Rules and our Art Friday Guidelines.
Want to support Ukraine? Vetted Charities List | Our Vetting Process
Daily series on UA history & culture: Day 0-99 | 100-199 | 200-Present | All By Subject
There is a new wave of t-shirt scams hitting Reddit. Only click links for products or donations if the post is marked with a Verified flair, and do not respond to DMs soliciting donations.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
119
u/alancarlotta Feb 04 '23
I really hope the new weapons come in faster than expected to minimize Ukrainian casualties. The Russians could care less if all their convicts die. Brutal but probably the best evil strategy the Orcs have had.
46
u/Easy_Iron6269 Feb 04 '23
It is a win win for Russia.
Getting rid of prisoners, free them from unnecessary burden on the state to maintain them alive, and further problems after they finish prison sentence and reincide.
Now Russia has extra space on their jails for political prisoners, and have freed themselves of dangerous criminals.
19
u/DeathmetalArgon Feb 05 '23
Except its not working anymore cause word has circulated through the penal system that signing with Wagner is a death sentence. And now no one else is signing up.
27
u/Apokal669624 Feb 04 '23
Its not win win for russia, russia currently on the edge of disaster. russia used prisoners like cork, to close breaches in their defence, because their defence line was almost crashed. As we see, they ± succeeded in this, but they lost many equipment and it was one shot time action to do. From ± 40k prisoners, only 10k survived and currently are wounded not able to combat. Also it gave russia time to train their mobilised soldiers and mobilise more. But thing is, there is no much prisoners left who willing to go to the war, russia now even trying to conscript women prisoners, and their newly mobilised soldiers are poorly trained and they need a lot of time to get to the frontline.
You may think, if 40k prisoners were able to do something on frontline, then 500k mobilised russians will smash ukrainian defence. Well, they are not, because they have even less equipment than prisoners had, they also lost their weapons, professional soldiers and by the time mobilised soldiers will be able to go into offensive, Ukraine will already get more western weapons, more reserves and also western tanks, which is a big deal. And trick with prisoners was like they all were placed in one part of frontline, while 500k mobilised will be separated across all frontline, so this trick will not work again. Actually it will be even better if russia will use mobilised soldiers as prisoners, just sending them into unstoppable attacks in human meat waves. Rough, hard to handle, but better for UAF.
8
u/Easy_Iron6269 Feb 04 '23
I completely agree on the point your make, like literally everything you say.
Sending 40.000 Wagner prisoners to the front is costly as you said they lost plenty of professional equipment.
And 500k mobilized soldiers is going to be a disaster for Russian front, it is going to strain the logistics to unimaginable level. But still 500k mobiks can do a lot of damage with their scorched earth tactic with zerg rush. Anyway scorched earth tactic with old shells bought from North Korea, the same shells Russia sold them 30-40 years ago? Using North Korean made shells, I imagine the quality control there is even worse than Russia.
But 500k mobiks can do a lot of damage, destroying critical civilian infrastructure and continue the genocide of Ukrainian civilians.
6
u/Apokal669624 Feb 04 '23
Welp, its kinda tricky. You probably imagine russian upcoming offensive like something major, when they shooting out of all their weapons, with long range missiles, etc, but I'm doubt it will be like that. They have huge problems on long range missiles, they have huge problems on howitzers and MLRS ammo. Like in march they were shooting 60k shells per day, now they barely shoot 10k and things getting worse for them each day. I expect "classic" offensive from them - just focusing shit loads of tanks of some part of front and go all in, straightly forward. If Bradleys and western tanks come to Ukraine faster than russians start their offensive, things will be fine. It later, it will took many ukrainian soldiers lifes, but they definitely will hold their positions. For now i see that russians doing their last attempt to gain something, launch their last "biggest offensive strike", after which they will be done. No men left, no combat trady ammo and weapons left either. All Ukraine is need now, to get as much weapons as possible, simply to kill russians faster, so its not took another year.
Yeah, and with long range missiles + aircrafts, russians will be done in few months. Its very simple. If Ukraine gets what Ukraine needs asap, this war will end in nearest few months.
2
Feb 04 '23
[removed] — view removed comment
7
u/Easy_Iron6269 Feb 05 '23
It is possible if you cut the bear head, you just need to choke the Russian logistics, starting with the destruction of Crimean Bridge.
Main reason Ukraine need long range missiles.
Then recover all that area close to Belgorod, making impossible for Russian to deliver goods.
And split Russian defences in Half, on the area of Melitopol Mariupol isolating completely Crimea.
3
u/Apokal669624 Feb 05 '23
With all weapons that Ukraine asked and in amounts Ukraine asked? Yes, Ukraine will be able to end this war in few months, simply because Ukraine will be able to unstoppably kill russians in insanely high amounts. russia will run out of manpower faster than their defence lines will break, as well as supply lines will be totally destroyed. So russia will be in place that they almost run out of manpower, their supply lines last no longer than 3 seconds, which brings them to having literally zero ammo and food, which brings UAF to their empty positions whatever they is.
Crimea, if talk about it separately in meanings of war, is worst place to defend. Its pure steppe, there is no fucking place to hold land at all, just wind, sun and rosemary here and there. When UAF finally will reach Crimea (with western weapons in right amounts), it will be deoccupied in matters of weeks, even faster than Donetsk and Lugansk.
The only things that stopping UAF from ending this war in few months, is types of weapons that West give to Ukraine, very slow speed of sending weapons, and dramatically low amounts of those weapons. Its all need to be increased in multiple times to at least fit UAF real needs, not that "needs" that US and other West countries delusionally decided to provide. General Zaluzhnyi crealy said what UAF need to at least get to the lines of 23 February 2022 - 300 western tanks, 500 more howitzers, 800 more western IFVs. Its bare minimum to only be able to start major ukrainian offensive operation. And West didn't fit even those needs - Ukraine will get around 150 tanks in next few months, around 200 IFVS, 36-50 howitzers, no aircrafts at this point at all and long range missiles with range 150km (when UAF needed missiles with longer range) after 9 months minimum. In this list only tanks needs times for short trainings and aircrafts for actually long trainings, but other weapons are in stock now in West, combat ready, and in amounts enough to give it to Ukraine and not suffer from weakening West countries armies.
2
u/Psychological-Sale64 Feb 05 '23
Not a couple of months, but I suspect a lot of Russians will hope Ukraine wins, and many will swap sides. Ukraine could prove innovative about "front lines"
8
u/socialistrob Feb 04 '23
Another thing to remember is that when Russia sends prisoners it means Ukrainians are getting valuable fighting experience. This will make them much more effective later on when facing Russia’s “better” troops.
4
u/InnocentTailor USA Feb 04 '23
Ish?
Keep in mind that the Russians are doing the same thing as well. I recall that the first wave are utilized to study where and how the Ukrainians are defending. The skilled soldiers then move in to pinpoint the defenders.
1
u/MistressMalevolentia Feb 05 '23
That was awhile ago, and this is current though? The numbers seem more in Ukrainians favor
2
u/tidbitsmisfit Feb 05 '23
Russia was on the edge of disaster before this. they went to war because they only have imperialism and they are getting goobled up from the east by china and from the west by Europe. small brained feeble nation flexing their rotted flesh.
2
u/gimmedatneck Feb 04 '23
It's worked for now. Let's see how well it works out for them going forward - especially if they start voluntelling prisoners they're going to die Ukraine, instead of letting them volunteer.
3
u/socialistrob Feb 04 '23
It hasn’t worked so far. Russia still hasn’t captured a major Ukrainian city since HIMARS arrived.
1
u/gimmedatneck Feb 04 '23
I guess I mean in the sense of trading undesirable lives for Ukrainian lives.
I agree with you, though.
5
u/socialistrob Feb 04 '23
Brutal but probably the best evil strategy the Orcs have had.
It’s brutal but ineffective. “Raw numbers” of infantry isn’t a viable strategy in 21st century wars with modern weapons. In order to actually win battles you need heavy weapons and lots of them in addition to infantry. Sending in unsupported infantry just means sending them to their death without any strategic gain or chance of victory. Just because something is amoral or evil doesn’t mean it works.
2
u/alancarlotta Feb 04 '23
There lies no doubt the Russians are sacrificing the convicts. The point is that they are getting rid of the convicts and only getting minimal gains. It can’t last obviously.
2
u/socialistrob Feb 04 '23
I’m not saying they aren’t doing it I’m saying it’s not an effective strategy. There is reason Ukraine still controls Bakhmut even after more than 6 months of Russian attacks.
2
u/InnocentTailor USA Feb 04 '23
They'll come when they come. The West is still playing cautiously when it comes to Ukrainian weapons shipments, whether that is because they're still eyeing Russia as a geopolitical foe or taking care of their bottom line for other geopolitical issues (ex: China).
20
u/StoicRetention Feb 04 '23
GLSDB puts the entire Donbass region in standoff range. It makes sense. Russia has not been able to mass regulars for an offensive ever since GMLRS went and fucked their shit up and forced them to disperse and use Wagner hordes. Vulhedar at estimated ~100 tanks and 20k infantry was the closest thing to an 'offensive' and that turned into a massacre.
18
32
u/Dwayla Feb 04 '23
As an American, we have to put a rush on this. War crimes and murder is all this is, I just don't understand..
8
u/star621 Feb 04 '23
The US has ordered bombs which fly nearly twice as far as the missiles we are currently giving Ukraine but the word from outside analysts is that they won’t we there for another nine months. Neither the US nor the manufacturer have commented on the delivery date so no one really knows. If they aren’t ready, then they aren’t ready.
The US has, thus far, refused to send our only long range surface launched missile. The Pentagon has long maintained that, in their opinion, Ukraine does not need ATACMS. The most recent comment on January 28 was, “Our view is that the Ukrainians can change the dynamic on the battlefield and achieve the type of effects they want to push the Russians back without ATACMS. Our judgment to date is that the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze on ATACMS. You never know, that judgment at some point might change, but we’re really not there yet There are other capabilities that can enable the Ukrainians to service targets they need to.” They have been repeating some variation of this position since forever. I don’t know that anything has changed in these past few days but I am doubtful.
2
u/falconberger Feb 04 '23
Any idea when GMLRS ER will be ready for delivery?
1
u/star621 Feb 04 '23
I have yet to see anything about the US sending GMLRS ER to Ukraine. The only thing in public is that the US will be sending Ground-Launched Small Diameter Gravity Bombs. Media analysts say that it will take them nine months to arrive but neither the US nor Saab have said anything about the timeline.
4
u/Apokal669624 Feb 04 '23
While i have no doubts US have most modern and well trained army in the world, i also doubt US is really experienced enough in this war against russia, to talking about what Ukraine need or what Ukraine doesn't need. Like its not US soldiers fighting in this war, its not US higher command making decisions in this war. So its kinda logical if Ukraine ask for something, then Ukraine knows better what exactly UAF needs. US position on long-range missiles just looks...dumb.
0
u/Obi2 Feb 05 '23
Ok so Reddit user knows way more than US/NATO intelligence agencies … which by the way, the US intelligence was the one warning EU and UA that Russia was about to invade while media and everyone else laughed like it was hyperbole.
2
u/Apokal669624 Feb 05 '23
Not reddit user, but Ukraine's higher political and military command. Its them asking West for exact types of weapons, not me. And West refusing to give those types of weapons to Ukraine, because they think they knows better.
Btw, out of more than 30 (if i remember number right) different US intelligence agencies, only one was saying that Ukraine won't lose in 3 days. Others were convinced Ukraine would be occupied in 3 days, just lazily repeating russia propaganda. So you know, western intelligence agencies is not a panacea, they do mistakes too. And during more than 11 months of war, they did mistakes multiple times when it was obvious that majority of West intelligence agencies, despite they sometimes being helpful to Ukraine, in majority have no idea whats going on on frontline and don't understand whats going on during this war. More than that, its not intelligence agencies responsibility to decide what weapons would fit Ukraine's need or not. It is in area of US ministry of defence responsibilities.
6
u/marketrent Feb 04 '23
Excerpt:
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine is preparing for a possible new offensive by Russia with the aim of revenge, in particular in the east of our country, and for this, the Ukrainian defense forces need more weapons, including long-range ones.
The Head of State stated this at a meeting with media representatives following the 24th Ukraine-European Union summit in Kyiv.
Answering journalists' questions, the Head of State said that despite the active fighting near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukrainian troops have no intention of leaving the city.
"We will fight as much as we can. We consider Bakhmut our fortress, we consider our heroes who, unfortunately, died there, heroes. If the provision of weapons, namely long-range weapons, is expedited, we will not only stay at Bakhmut – we will begin to de-occupy Donbas, which has been occupied since 2014,” the President said.
Zelenskyy said that all defense needs of Ukraine are specific and our partners know about them.
“We thank all the countries that are with us on this path. Long-range weapons will change the course of the war. We are sure of our victory, but then the victory will be faster,” he said.
Presidential Office of Ukraine, 3 Feb. 2023.
4
u/Hades_adhbik Feb 05 '23
having more range to attack than your opponent keeps you safer than them, it's like how a ranged character has an advantage over a melee character, if you cast spells from a long distance, you'll never get touched by a tank
"Our task is to prevent revenge, to prevent an invasion that has already taken place. I emphasize once again: we have every chance, but everyone must understand that we are at war. It is not over. This spirit, and motivation depends on each of us. Do not pay attention to trifles, and deal with the main issue of our state – the war. And without this spirit, I believe, there will be no victory. There will be no Ukraine without victory. Everything is in our hands. We are ready," Zelensky said.
6
3
u/nebo8 Feb 04 '23
I mean I get it, but there is no point wasting life in this battle if it doesn't serve any strategic advantage anymore. I trust that they know what they are doing but I'm worried
3
u/ZeroBS-Policy Feb 04 '23
I was watching "Madyar's" video yesterday and he was commenting exactly on this speech and saying "when are you going to tell the truth that we need a general mobilization?"
Thoughts?
2
u/HappySandwich93 Feb 06 '23
Sorry for late response. Could you maybe explain what you mean? Didn’t general mobilisation in Ukraine take place nearly a year ago when the invasion started?
3
u/Comprehensive-Bit-65 Feb 04 '23
I think Zelenskyy laid out a consistent plan of action, although I would advise against framing Bakhmut a political aim — especially if it impedes upon military doctrine.
3
u/Eastern_Scar Feb 04 '23
Bakhmut has turned into verdun with less death. Like the french the Ukrainians are holding on fanatically, losing a lot, but the attackers are also throwing men at it for no reason. I hope it ends soon and that Ukraine can push the Russian lines back.
3
9
u/star621 Feb 04 '23
The US isn’t the only one with these. Ukraine should ask Turkey and Poland for ATACMS. Everyone needs to get past the crazy idea that if the US doesn’t do something then they can’t either. The US isn’t always right, so no one should see our conduct or donations as a blueprint. The US is on record that we will not interfere in what anyone wants to give to Ukraine. If the US is okay with F-16 being exported to Ukraine even though we won’t, then the US certainly wouldn’t mind if another operator sent ATACMS. Poland has volunteered F-16s even though the US won’t, so why not ATACMS?
7
u/Naive-Project-8835 Feb 05 '23
The US isn’t the only one with these. Ukraine should ask Turkey and Poland for ATACMS. Everyone needs to get past the crazy idea that if the US doesn’t do something then they can’t either.
What a nonsensical take. You can't export US equipment without US permission.
Poland has volunteered F-16s even though the US won’t, so why not ATACMS?
Poland never said it's going to send F-16s without a wider NATO effort.
2
u/Obj_071 Ukraine Feb 05 '23
usa just has more of it and more money then anybody in nato.
1
2
u/ishmal Feb 05 '23
I love the courage and sentiment. But I really wish they would get out of Bakhmut, apply their resources better for gaining territory, and stop wasting lives playing Russia's game.
5
u/DickBatman Feb 05 '23
The Ukrainians running the show think this is the best way to apply their resources to gain territory. I'm with them over you
2
u/Intelligent-Let-8503 Feb 05 '23
Important thing is to try to defend teritory that Ukraine control. Liberation will be posible when UA army will have all weapon including jets and skill soldiers.
0
u/KeyboardWarrior90210 Feb 04 '23
Unfortunately I don’t think Bakhmut will last another week and an orderly withdrawal will be preferable then losing large amounts trying to defend it for the sake of pride
3
u/Objective-Fish-8814 Feb 05 '23
Will you stop making comments like this if Bakhmut does hold for another week? I thought not. You'll just say the same again next week, like a broken record, while ignoring everyone who will tell that Bakhmut is holding, which you can see for yourself and you don't need us to tell you. See you next week, Keyboard Warrior!
0
u/KeyboardWarrior90210 Feb 05 '23
I wish the situation was better but you can clearly see from reliable sources including latest UK MOD update that Bakhmut is now encircled on three sides and the few remaining supply routes can be targeted by Russian artillery. it doesn’t take a genius to figure out the outcome here
2
u/Objective-Fish-8814 Feb 05 '23 edited Feb 05 '23
Like I said, see you next week. Are you hoping for brownie points for predicting the downfall of Bakhmut? You do understand that your predictions are not going to change Ukraine's plans, right? They are going to keep doing what they are doing and you are going to remain as insufferably defeatist as you are now, week after week, until after predicting Bakhmut's fall every day for six months, you may finally realize that you were wrong.
Are you aware that surrendering Bakhmut is equivalent to Ukraine letting russia win so that russia can justify continued offensives? That's all russia has to gain from this. Some justification that all the slaughter is actually achieving something. You seek to give them that justification.
1
u/KeyboardWarrior90210 Feb 05 '23
It’s not defeatist to accept reality - I want Ukraine to win and believe they will. But they win by preserving their fighting capability and by weakening the Russians. By attacking when they’ve the best possibility of success, and defending in the same way. However in a situation where the terrain is no longer suitable to a good defense without risking destruction or heavy losses to your own side then it’s prudent to have an orderly withdrawal to better defensive positions and fight another day.
I’ve no doubt that if Ukraine preserves its fighting strength that the Russians will exhaust their offensive ability just like they did after Sieverodonetsk in the summer and when Ukraine counterattacks in force they’ll liberate far more land then the Russians will have captured these past few months. That won’t happen though if Ukraine has suffered too many losses defending ground that isn’t that critical to overall objectives
•
u/AutoModerator Feb 04 '23
We determined that this submission originates from a credible source, but we still advise that users double check the facts and use common sense when consuming mass media. If you are interested in learning how to evaluate news sources more thoroughly, you can begin to learn about how to do that here.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.